Bing Predicts is a programLog In uses on social-networks to calculate "intelligent predictions about upcoming events, like sports games, reality TV shows, and more" and then -to post their 'predictions' (really more like 'probability-spreads') onLog In. While Bing's method seems valid (in this 'call-in to vote for the next American Idol'-culture), I doubt that method when it comes to 'the votes that Academy-members give'---votes that pretty-much insure that 'they who are voted "Best"' are so-voted because they are the best! So I'm going to disagree with Bing before I even know what their guesses are! How about you? (Do you wonder what their guesses are--with which you might agree--or are you (like me) not even going to look? )
Why would you assume that the Oscar winners are always chosen for being the best? Roger Ebert found a pattern or template for the past 30 years of Oscars. Best Actress always goes to a woman playing a role that deals with feminism, gender or sexuality. Best actor always goes to a guy who's a misfit challenging a judgmental world, like Forest Gump. Best Picture is usually a liberation picture dealing with war, slavery etc. Here's the whole article. Log In It's not about being the best. It's about familiar patterns that people are comfortable with. So I'm pretty sure that Bing's guesses are probably spot on.
